A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
