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For a brief period, Donald Trump gave the impression to embrace a firm position on Ukraine. After delivering warnings of "serious repercussions" in August should Putin carried on hindering peace negotiations, the former president finally imposed substantial sanctions on the Russian two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action seriously impacted the Russian leader's capability to support his aggression in Ukraine.

However, via his recently unveiled comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, that was created by US and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or EU participation, Trump has seemingly returned to his pro-Putin stance.

Favoring Military Action

The former president's initiative would in practice benefit the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while putting the country's political freedom in danger. Despite strong declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", much of the initiative actually undermine that same sovereignty. What represents a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his real-estate past, the former president persists to consider the situation in Ukraine as a basic border issue, like ceding Putin a part of Ukraine's soil will please the ruler. However, Russia's invasion is not merely about controlling a damaged swath of industrial-devastated land in Ukraine's east. It is about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's clear desire to eliminate it so it ceases to serves as an enticing example for the Russia's population of the democratic government that his increasing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Border Surrenders

While keeping in place the presently split Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would compel the nation to give up the entire this eastern territory. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in over a decade of warfare, this giveaway would leave Ukraine's defenses severely weakened.

This region is the site of Ukraine's well-known "defensive line", the entrenched protective structures that are a essential obstacle to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these fortifications, leaving Russian forces a clear way to Kyiv should he eventually opt to restart the conflict.

Military Limitations

Additionally, in a step that would facilitate additional hostilities easier for Russia, Trump would force the nation to reduce the scale of its military from their existing large number personnel to a limit of six hundred thousand. Importantly, the plan imposes no such limits on the invading army.

In what appears as a concession to Russia's campaign to portray Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as extremists, Trump's proposal states: "Every extremist ideology and actions must be opposed and forbidden." Apparently to emphasize this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal sets no condition that Putin jeopardize his regime by conducting votes in Russia.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the initiative has Russia promise not to "enter bordering nations" and to "establish in law its stance of peaceful relations towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet given that the Russian leadership has violated similar agreements in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to respect the nation's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a return of captured land in eastern Ukraine to the government – for what reason should the international community trust this commitment now?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international protection assurances. While the plan warns of a "strong unified military response" if the Russian Federation resume its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the particulars include unclear to concerning. The initiative would not just prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude alliance nations from stationing military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thus preventing the security presence, reportedly led by European powers, on which Ukraine had been depending to stop Putin from replenishing his reduced forces, restocking, and attacking again.

Global Response

An additional side agreement reportedly would grant Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any later "significant, planned, and continuous military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault jeopardizing the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This indicates a military response. Yet unlike a powerful Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best deterrent against renewed Russian aggression – the credibility of the supplementary deal would rely on the willingness of alliance members, such as Trump, to react with force to Russia's attacks, something they have {not